Old Suspicions, Alliances Plague Balkan Politics

Statements made by President Karamanlis are usually referred to as ‘cryptic’. Given the large powers which Andreas Papandreou stripped from the presidency in 1985, it’s a wonder he can be deciphered at all. But being simply himself, the Ethnarch, his few but potent words are carefully recorded, spread around and mulled over.

On the day that NATO took to the skies to enforce the no-fly ban over Bosnia, the Greek press with uncharacteristic delicacy ‘overheard’ the President say to the Prime Minister, “Not even those who took the decision for this operation in Bosnia know what the results will be. It is unfortunate that foolish moves are being made on the international political scene.” He was then overheard to add ominously, “Don’t think this will be over soon.” The President had agreed, along with all political parties (for once), that no Balkan country should become entangled in the Bosnian civil war. This sensible policy has been endorsed by Bulgaria and Romania. NATO, however, has among its members two Balkan states: Greece, whose response to no-fly is, exactly, no fly; but for Turkey it means flying high on the wings of glory.

One of the last and most memorable statements of the late President Turgut Ozal is that the Turkish sphere of influence should extend from the Adriatic to China. Hardly was he interred, than the Adriatic side of this dream had been all but achieved and the Turks may soon be, after a century, back in Bosnia.

This putting out of the cat amongst the pigeons, or perhaps more appropriately, this letting out the genie from the lamp, is what President Karamanlis means by “foolish moves”. The decision earlier this month to put NATO into action in Bosnia was certainly not made locally. This is unfortunate as people who are native to a given area usually know it better than people who don’t, no matter how big their TV screens.

Unfortunately, too, Greece is in another one of its quandries. They are not always of its own making. It is not easy to be faithful to someone who has been declared persona non grata by the civilized world, but Serbia is Greece’s only old friend in sight.

Truly, closer relations with Bulgaria have been very welcome lately. President Zhelev has agreed about the stand-off in Yugoslavia and important trade agreements are moving forward. But the small Turkish minority party holds the balance of power in Parliament there, and Sofia’s early recognition of Skopje caused hard feelings. Then history casts long, often ugly, shadows as it does all over the Balkans; the two countries bickered over Thrace after the Balkan Wars, and Bulgaria’s occupation of Greek Thrace and Thasos as part of the Axis has left scars.

Serbia and Greece, however, fought side by side in the Balkan Wars, together with the British on the bloody Salonica front during World War I, and both opposed the Nazis in World War II. Serbia and Greece are traditional allies and however Serbia is branded as an international pariah now, Greece cannot join the crowd against it, even when its own reputation as the EC’s black sheep has not quite been restored to pristine whiteness.

The problem also is that the half-mythical land of Fyromia lies between them – another reason to regret how the Macedonian dispute was handled, for otherwise some solidarity might have existed among them. This is certainly not the case. President Gligorov holds out for the single Macedonian name, threatens to waive treaties regarding borders, and although the Sun of Vergina may set from its flag, no promises are made on disowning Alexander the Great.
On this latter subject journalist Miha Glenny casts some insight on today’s Fyromia when he described a visit to Skopje in his illuminating book The Fall of Yugoslavia.

“Many Macedonian rock bands have, since the fall of communism, devoted themselves almost exclusively to the cult of Alexander the Great. Alexander lived before the Slavs settled in Macedonia, but he remains an important foundation on which Macedonian nationalists build their myths… These ridiculous ensembles are worthy of the Balkans’ endemic passion for nonsense.”

In other words, what that made-up country lacks is any sense of identity. In a way, Greece suffers from the opposite: too much identity. It can be as burdensome to have a surfeit of history as it is to have too little and be forced to steal some. Modern Greece from its beginnings has found it very strenuous trying to live up to its past. In fact it has many pasts – more than any small country can comfortably digest. ‘Cradle of democracy’ is just an old favorite out of which Greece gets a lot of mileage, but ‘bastion of Christendom’ is another, heard more here than abroad, and it is getting louder. It may be the thing which Mr Karamanlis was overheard to say “will not be over soon.”

Behind much of the present unease here and other parts of the Balkans is the fear of a jihad, a religious war not just between Christians and Muslims, but open strife between the Eastern and Western Churches, too. Bosnia has the double misfortune of lying across the fault line which divides all of them.

This is another reason why Greece and Serbia feel kinship, and why both keep an eye cocked on ‘Mother Russia’ who, though she has lost a lot of children, is still Big Mama to most Orthodox.

Since the fall of communism, the Orthodox Church has been strongly objecting to the Catholic Church’s poaching on traditionally Eastern Church lands. There is even talk of creating an Orthodox Arc across the Balkans to box in the much-discussed Muslim Arc, connecting Turkey with the Muslims of Bulgaria and Thrace, with the Albanians in Fyromia, Albania and Kossovo, and finally with the Muslims of Bosnia.

Barely, if ever, are these fears mentioned in the western press. This is a serious oversight because fear plays a very important role in life, and motivates strong reactions. Ignoring them can very easily lead to what Mr Karamanlis calls “foolish moves”. He should know. He is a true man of the old Balkans: an Orthodox Christian who was born a subject of the Ottoman Sultanate.